Semester One of Ph.D. School in the Record Books

Well, my first semester of Ph.D. school is done. Turned in the last bit of course work on December 8. Grades posted sometime over the last couple of days, and it turns out I am not a total idiot after all:

Yay me!

Now, time to celebrate with a beer. Feel free to do the same.

When an Expert is not an Expert

This year when I went to get my annual check up, I called my Doctor - a guy who went to medical school, earned the degree, and then developed a successful medical practice as evidenced by the hundreds of clients that see him year after year. And many years ago when I remodeled my home on the Bench, I used the services of two licensed, and bonded contractors who had nearly eighty years of building experience between the two of them.

When I told people I had my annual physical no one said to me, “Hell, you shoulda called my neighbor. He runs marathons and reads lots of health magazines.” The same holds true when I remodeled my house: no one suggested that I would have been better off calling their cousin Elmer who almost earned an A in high school wood shop. But, when it comes to public policy, and more specifically the transit issue, people seem to have a difficult time discerning who the experts are in this debate.

I cannot count the times in the Trolley debate that someone has told me that I need to read Randall O’Toole. I was even recently chastised for not “keeping an open mind” because I don’t reference or pay attention to O’Toole. There is good reason for this: he is not a credible expert on transportation, or planning, the two subjects on which he speaks a great deal. Why do I say this?

It is not because I disagree with him. I disagree with Paul Krugman for the most part, but because Krugman has a Ph.D. in economics from MIT, writes for a respectable publication (the New York Times), and earned a Nobel Prize for his work in economics, we must take him seriously.

I don’t disregard O’Toole because he is an affiliate of the CATO Institute. I have a great deal of esteem for CATO. I carry my CATO pocket Constitution in my briefcase. I think CATO criminal justice policy planner Radley Balko is spot on. So my rejection of O’Toole has nothing to do with politics.

And it also isn’t entirely because O’Toole simply has no training in planning or transportation that I disregard his work. His official bio indicates that he “studied forestry” at the University of Oregon. I don’t know what that means, but typically when someone asks me about my educational background, I say I earned a masters in applied historical research. Now it isn’t a requirement that an expert be educated or trained in the field they study. Jane Jacobs and Lewis Mumford are two of the most influential urbanists of our time, yet neither were classically trained in architecture, planning, or urbanism.

The ideas of Mumford and Jacobs matter though because they are relevant and have been found to be valid and reliable commentaries on urban life. The same cannot be said of O’Toole’s work. I can generalize with a couple of examples.

O’Toole has made a career on criticizing Portland’s world-wide acclaimed public transportation system. This is akin to making the claim that “baseball isn’t popular.” One could easily argue that over a hundred countries don’t have organized baseball at all, and billions of people will go without watching the World Series. But claiming that Portland’s rail system is a failure is ridiculous on its face. We should no more consider that argument than my senseless baseball argument.

The real issue for not reading his work is the fact that it simply brings nothing to the debate. Like when you ask your two year old if he wants mac and cheese or chicken nuggets for lunch and he blurts out “BWANNANO,” O’Toole’s answer to any transportation question is, “buy a car.” There simply is no rail plan that passes his muster, so why bother?

If you really want to understand the different classes of rail, the application of different transportation solutions to problems, how to plan for transit, etc., I’d suggest referencing the works of a real expert. Maybe a guy like Dr. Vukan Vucich, a professor of transportation engineering at the University of Pennsylvania. You might reference one of his books such as Urban Transit: Operations, Planning, and Economics, which happens to be one of the best selling transportation texts in the world. Or you might read one of the 120 peer-reviewed articles on transportation planning that he’s published over his 50 year career in transportation planning.

I am no expert in transportation planning, but I can differentiate between Vucich and O’Toole as sources on the subject, and realize when someone is just yelling “BWANNANO” in my face.

Kuna Council Candidates: Not Best but WORST Practices

Today’s Idaho Statesman has a feature (at the back of the Sports page???) on the council candidates running throughout the Valley, and something very interesting is emerging: the battle to control Kuna.

While the races in Boise are pure Milquetoast (Bisterfeldt and Jordan are sure to win in a walk; Tibbs will give up his seat to cookie-cutter Thompson), Kuna fielded a slate of 10 candidates! It’s a real ding-dong fight to sort out who will control the resources of 13,000 people.

Anyway, the interesting thing that comes out of all this is that two of the candidates are running on the platform to somehow disallow business owners from serving on Kuna’s City Council. In light of an old construct called the U.S. Constitution, I am not sure how they plan to pull this off, but Corrina Stiles and Douglas Hoiland both oppose business owners sitting on the Council, according to the Idaho Statesman.

I attempted to visit both candidate’s websites to clarify their positions. Corrina Stiles, on her site, says this:

“When council members recuse themselves from decision making because of conflicts of interests, a small body of 4 is now even smaller. Is the answer to close city council membership to business owners, probably not. But we should indeed select council members who will not see a business financial gain or protection from decision making. ”

This raises the question of whether she changed her position when she filled out the Statesman’s questionnaire, or whether the Statesman got the story wrong. Maybe she’ll respond here and let us know.

As for Doug Hoiland, the 56 year old SOFTWARE DEVELOPER has no website so I can’t confirm or refute his position on business owners serving on the Council.

For the sake of argument and this column, let’s just assume that the both of these candidates have decided that because conflict of interests are so rife that it’s just not possible for people that own a business to serve on a city council. Might there be other opinions out there? Yes.

I just finished reading a book published by Harvard University Press, authored by University of Chicago Graduate School of Business Professor Sean Safford, entitled Why the Garden Club Couldn’t Save Youngstown. Hat tip to Idaho Department of Commerce Deputy Director Lane Packwood for the recommend; it’s a great read.

In the book, Safford writes a case study of two rust-belt towns, Youngstown, OH and Allentown, PA, and how they grappled with the changing economic conditions that hammered their industrial based economies beginning in the 1970s. Short story is this: while Youngstown got taken over by the mob and essentially died, Allentown attracted venture capital, grew its population, and is now thriving. Two cities starting with very similar resources end up in very different places. What accounts for the difference? Safford explains it as a matter of social capital.

Youngstown’s business and civic elite were one in the same. By the 1970s, when business began to collapse the third and fourth generation founding families of Youngstown’s economic engine retreated from public life, and civic life collapsed along with the economy. Allentown was a different story.

Allentown’s civic boards, rather than being interlocking directorates as in Youngstown, were opportunities to connect people that would not otherwise be connected. Managers from local economic powerhouses who had a vested interest in the place they lived (how novel) had replaced dilettante family members from Allentown’s big companies. Thus, civic boards remained viable and were ready to address the economic malaise that struck the Rust-belt with blunt force.

At the end of the short but powerful book, Safford arrives at one important conclusion for policy makers, economic developers, and their ilk:

“Incentives might be better directed to weaving company leaders into the local civil society. And in doing so, it makes sense to analyze the structure of that civil society and guide the leaders of key constituencies - economic, religious, social, and political - toward forms of participation that link up otherwise disconnected factions. One way to do this is to pay greater attention to the various advisory boards that mayors, county executives, and legislators control and use those as opportunities to create connections among communities that need to be connected.”

Alright, look. I am not an educational or social elitist by any means. I’m a guy that earned an M.A. from a regular old state school in Idaho, but here’s what we have here. A University of Chicago (one of the world’s top universities) professor argues that cities enduring economic change (like Boise) need to focus on connecting business leaders with civic organizations. Meanwhile, candidates in Kuna, where a whole 14.7% of the population has a college degree (about 10% below the Idaho average) are hauling off and saying just the opposite. I don’t know where Kuna folks get these ideas (see the picture above) but this guy (moi) is confident that they might not have this one right. Just sayin’.

David v. Goliath II: Blanchard v. Nelson on growth along the Snake River Plain

At the NewWest.net planning conference in June of this year, Professor Arthur (Chris) Nelson of the University of Utah raised some eyebrows when he outlined his predictions for the U.S. housing market over the coming decades, and his thoughts on what that meant for Idaho.

USC Professor Richard Green openly disagreed with Nelson’s projections as did BoDo developer Mark Rivers. The Calculated Risk blog also had some critiques, but nothing major.

Nelson’s analysis indicated that Idaho’s population would fill in along the Snake River Plain from it’s western edge in Ontario, OR, over to the eastern side of Idaho ending at Rexburg. For me it’s not how many people will move here, but where they will actually settle. Though Nelson believes growth will fill in along the I-84 corridor, evidence seems to contradict him indicating that growth will instead occur between the Wasatch Front, and move north to Rexburg - skipping the Boise Valley all together. There are good reasons for this.

Wealth is already leaving the Boise Valley for eastern Idaho and the Wasatch Front.

IRS data from 2006 and 2007 show positive migration to Ada County within Idaho. However, those migrating to Ada County from other parts of the state had average adjusted gross incomes of $33,337 annually, while those leaving Ada County for other parts of the state had annual incomes of $40,582. In total, residents worth $139 million moved to Ada County, and residents worth a total of $154 million moved out. That is a loss of $15 million in gross income for Ada County, to other parts of Idaho.

Additionally, in that same period, half of the top ten cities to which Boiseans moved were along the I-15 corridor with Provo, UT ranking first; Salt Lake City (2); Idaho Falls (5); Ogden, UT (7); and Pocatello (8). The more stable economic climate of eastern Idaho and Utah is but one reason why Boiseans are leaving.

There are strong sociocultural linkages between eastern Idaho and Utah.

It used to be said that Idaho had two capitals: Spokane, and Salt Lake City. Indeed, Coeur D’ Alene, ID is part of a two-state metropolitan statistical area (MSA) that includes Spokane and Coeur D’ Alene, and the Logan, UT MSA includes counties in southern Idaho. But physical proximity is not the only connection. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints exudes a strong cultural presence along the Wasatch Front and Eastern Idaho. With the presence of the new Temple in Rexburg and a growing BYU-Idaho campus there as well, the cultural linkages between eastern Idaho and Utah are only getting stronger.

Gaps in the transportation system separate the Boise Valley from eastern Idaho, and eastern Idaho from Utah. The gap between Utah and eastern Idaho, however, is shrinking more quickly.

Traffic patterns along Idaho’s highway system (seen below) show a consistent level of traffic between Ontario, OR and Heyburn, ID. Traffic drops off significantly, though, between Heyburn and American Falls. Traffic flows again pick up significantly between American Falls and Rexburg.

Lower traffic counts also show up on I-84 heading south out of Heyburn, and on I-15 heading south out of Pocatello, much like the reduced counts between Heyburn and American Falls. In this day and age of regional employment exchange will eastern Idaho ultimately align itself along I-84, or I-15?

If America’s foremost planners with the America2050 project have their way, the Pioneer rail line - which runs from Seattle to Chicago by way of Boise and Salt Lake City - will one day run again. But that line also contains another important spur: the link from Salt Lake City to Pocatello. As gas prices rise, airlines will offer fewer flights meaning Boise will inevitably end up with less air service in favor of airlines servicing larger airports such as Salt Lake and Denver. The rail link between Salt Lake and Pocatello, which also mirrors the west coast’s chief north-south land route between Mexico and Canada (CANAMEX) will exert strong pressure on the region to further develop in a north-south manner, and not throughout the Snake River Plain.

With white-collar job growth flat or shrinking in the Boise Valley and the economy in eastern Idaho more stable, strong sociocultural linkages between eastern Idaho and Utah, and a developing transportation network between eastern Idaho and Utah, evidence seems to suggest that the north-south corridor along I-15, rather than the east-west corridor along I-84 seems better poised for long-term economic and population growth. Alas, only time will tell.

Fall Workshop: Great Idaho Campaigns

If anyone is looking for a one-unit workshop for either undergraduate or graduate credit, I am teaching one in October called “Great Idaho Campaigns.” Class runs 4:00 pm - 8:00 pm on the first Thursday in October, 4:00 pm - 8:00 pm on Friday, and then 9:00 - 4:00 on Saturday.

Thursday we’ll look at the changing nature of media and technology in campaigns, and hear some campaign songs. Friday is a visit to Idaho Public Television and then a roundtable discussion with two well-known media consultants who work for major Idaho politicians. Saturday is a mini-campaign school, a little theory, delving into a couple classic Idaho campaigns, and then designing your own campaign.

Any questions, let me know. You can also view the whole syllabus if you are curious.

Relationship between culture and the economy

I really didn’t mean to do another blog post about Richard Florida so soon, but I came across a paragraph in a new book by esteemed urban scholars Paul Knox and Heike Mayer that explains that arts and culture create more than just economic value for communities (Florida’s research shows that creativity and economic success are linked; Knox and Mayer say, “so what?”):

“Community-based theories suggest that the use of arts and culture for small town sustainability and regeneration should go beyond its instrumental value (i.e., economic competitiveness, creation of creative industries, etc.) and integrate the intrinsic characteristics of creativity. Creativity is not just about innovating or creating new things, products, processes or consumer experiences. Rather, creative endeavours shift our thinking and change strereotypes. Through the arts and culture, residents and artists can imagine a different future for a community or a place, and they can introduce paradigm shifts once they empowered through creativity.”

This quote better explains what I think we are trying to do with Ignite Boise, than any explanation I have come across: get people to imagine their community in new ways.

In the last week or so I also discovered an interesting fact about the University of Texas at Austin: it has the largest collection of university owned art in the United States at its Blanton Museum of Art, AND has America’s third leading university based technology commercialization office - it produces more patents and spin-offs than all but two other American universities. Coincidence? No.

Florida, Mayer and Knox are all correct. There is economic benefit to be gained by developing a community’s arts and culture. But there are other reasons for purely creative endeavors not the least of which is building the capacity for a community to envision itself in new ways, and there are strong signs that Boise is moving in that direction.

What if gas was $20 a gallon?

On the Today Show this morning I saw author Christopher Steiner talking to Matt Lauer about his new book “$20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better.” I have to admit as a guy who rides his bike 3 miles to work every day, even when gas hit $4.00 I never even thought twice about it. But $20 a gallon?

Steiner doesn’t start there, however. He first starts with gas at $6 a gallon, and says it means this:

The death of the SUV
Crumbling road infrastructure
Healthier Americans

Most of this is pretty self-explanatory. No one will be able to afford SUV’s, and with more people switiching to smaller more fuel efficient cars and other forms of transportation gas tax revenues will drop. The interesting thing to note here is that Americans get healthier: according to University of North Carolina professor Charles Courtemanche for every $1 per gallon that gas increases, obesity drops 10%. The 10% drop in obesity equates to $11 billion savings in the health care system

When gasoline hits $8.00 per gallon, the situation gets far worse:

• Major airlines fold
• Vegas resorts and Disney World close
• Families live closer together

When gas hits $8 per gallon

Not having read the book yet, I am not sure how Steiner comes to this conclusion, but from the interview it sounds as if the cost of running an airline will prohibit many of them from continuing operations when gas hit this price. No wonder Vegas wants a bullet train from So Cal right to its very door.

$14 per gallon brings some interesting news too:

• Walmart dies
• More mom-and-pop stores
• Factories return to the U.S.

Steiner notes that Walmart has 6,000 suppliers 80% of which are in China. They rely on a fleet of 7,000 trucks to move good from ports inland to 4,000 stores. That will no longer be cost competitive when gas hits $14 a gallon.

Finally at $20 per gallon:

• 90% of Americans will live in cities
• 70% of Americans will never own a car
• Nuclear reactors will power everything

All of us have heard the “peak-oil” pronouncements over the last 30 years so those with a sense of history will probably look at this book and say “huh.” I haven’t spent enough time thinking about this to form a real opinion. Still it’s fascinating to consider the implications of gas prices, which if they were actually controlled by the invisible hand, should be rising as world-wide demand has never been higher.

Where Harvard grads fear to tread

Few Harvard grads are moving west

Saw this report a week or so ago and thought it interesting. As you can very nearly see from the infographic above, only California really got a significant number of grads from the last Harvard class. 13% of Harvard 2009 grads moved to California for work or grad school. Another 2.3% moved to other places in the West. The largest share of grads stayed right there in the Northeast Megaregion. What’s up with the Brahmins? They don’t imbue a sense of adventure among Harvard students anymore?