JUMPDATE 2010

Yep, you saw it in today’s Statesman. JUMP is back. Now, it’s not a $100 million deal, but a $70 million one. Instead of circling the grounds, it provides a Disneyesque flank on Myrtle, and a lot of open space. I still don’t get the concept, and I don’t think Simplot does either. A tractor museum, combined with two floors of event space, artists studios, a caterer and an ad-hoc cooking school? And foundation offices but no corporate headquarters?

I so, so, so, want to be wrong, but no one would seriously bring a proposal like this to market. How in the world do these people plan to activate this space?

City to JUMP: Take a Flying Leap

Well it comes as no surprise that the City of Boise has resoundingly panned the hastily thrown together JUMP project. As the Statesman reports today:

In August, city officials and urban design experts brought in by Boise Mayor Dave Bieter met with Simplot planners to review the project proposal. The gist of that meeting was that the project should change, said Councilman Alan Shealy.

And that . . .

Some of the biggest concerns: that the project didn’t connect well to BoDo or other Downtown developments, and that its design wouldn’t be open enough to pedestrians. “I heard the experts didn’t pull any punches,” (P&Z Member Doug) Cooper said. “It was a fascinating project, but where it could be better is how it sits in the city in an urban way … being active for people on the street, it just doesn’t do very well.”

And of course you might recall what I said way back in May when the project was first proposed:

It remains to be seen what the site planners are thinking. A ringed fortress in the city’s cultural district? There is zero visibility between the buildings in the complex, that is a negative. The one good thing about that could be sound mitigation from traffic. We’ll see though what design review and the Council have to say.

Good for the powers that be for saying NO to bad design. There’s been a lot of that in this city through the urban renewal years, some by the Simplots already (Grove Hotel). A $100 million project in the heart of the city is something that has to be done right.

David v. Goliath II: Blanchard v. Nelson on growth along the Snake River Plain

At the NewWest.net planning conference in June of this year, Professor Arthur (Chris) Nelson of the University of Utah raised some eyebrows when he outlined his predictions for the U.S. housing market over the coming decades, and his thoughts on what that meant for Idaho.

USC Professor Richard Green openly disagreed with Nelson’s projections as did BoDo developer Mark Rivers. The Calculated Risk blog also had some critiques, but nothing major.

Nelson’s analysis indicated that Idaho’s population would fill in along the Snake River Plain from it’s western edge in Ontario, OR, over to the eastern side of Idaho ending at Rexburg. For me it’s not how many people will move here, but where they will actually settle. Though Nelson believes growth will fill in along the I-84 corridor, evidence seems to contradict him indicating that growth will instead occur between the Wasatch Front, and move north to Rexburg - skipping the Boise Valley all together. There are good reasons for this.

Wealth is already leaving the Boise Valley for eastern Idaho and the Wasatch Front.

IRS data from 2006 and 2007 show positive migration to Ada County within Idaho. However, those migrating to Ada County from other parts of the state had average adjusted gross incomes of $33,337 annually, while those leaving Ada County for other parts of the state had annual incomes of $40,582. In total, residents worth $139 million moved to Ada County, and residents worth a total of $154 million moved out. That is a loss of $15 million in gross income for Ada County, to other parts of Idaho.

Additionally, in that same period, half of the top ten cities to which Boiseans moved were along the I-15 corridor with Provo, UT ranking first; Salt Lake City (2); Idaho Falls (5); Ogden, UT (7); and Pocatello (8). The more stable economic climate of eastern Idaho and Utah is but one reason why Boiseans are leaving.

There are strong sociocultural linkages between eastern Idaho and Utah.

It used to be said that Idaho had two capitals: Spokane, and Salt Lake City. Indeed, Coeur D’ Alene, ID is part of a two-state metropolitan statistical area (MSA) that includes Spokane and Coeur D’ Alene, and the Logan, UT MSA includes counties in southern Idaho. But physical proximity is not the only connection. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints exudes a strong cultural presence along the Wasatch Front and Eastern Idaho. With the presence of the new Temple in Rexburg and a growing BYU-Idaho campus there as well, the cultural linkages between eastern Idaho and Utah are only getting stronger.

Gaps in the transportation system separate the Boise Valley from eastern Idaho, and eastern Idaho from Utah. The gap between Utah and eastern Idaho, however, is shrinking more quickly.

Traffic patterns along Idaho’s highway system (seen below) show a consistent level of traffic between Ontario, OR and Heyburn, ID. Traffic drops off significantly, though, between Heyburn and American Falls. Traffic flows again pick up significantly between American Falls and Rexburg.

Lower traffic counts also show up on I-84 heading south out of Heyburn, and on I-15 heading south out of Pocatello, much like the reduced counts between Heyburn and American Falls. In this day and age of regional employment exchange will eastern Idaho ultimately align itself along I-84, or I-15?

If America’s foremost planners with the America2050 project have their way, the Pioneer rail line - which runs from Seattle to Chicago by way of Boise and Salt Lake City - will one day run again. But that line also contains another important spur: the link from Salt Lake City to Pocatello. As gas prices rise, airlines will offer fewer flights meaning Boise will inevitably end up with less air service in favor of airlines servicing larger airports such as Salt Lake and Denver. The rail link between Salt Lake and Pocatello, which also mirrors the west coast’s chief north-south land route between Mexico and Canada (CANAMEX) will exert strong pressure on the region to further develop in a north-south manner, and not throughout the Snake River Plain.

With white-collar job growth flat or shrinking in the Boise Valley and the economy in eastern Idaho more stable, strong sociocultural linkages between eastern Idaho and Utah, and a developing transportation network between eastern Idaho and Utah, evidence seems to suggest that the north-south corridor along I-15, rather than the east-west corridor along I-84 seems better poised for long-term economic and population growth. Alas, only time will tell.

JUMPDATE: Now hiring, project coordinator

The JUMP folks are hiring a project coordinator (link to PDF). DM me (@LGM1) or e-mail me for where to send your package.

JUMPDATE! Now Hiring: “Board of Dreamers”

My good friends over at Rizen Creative have the whole JUMPDATE over on their blog, but I couldn’t help comment on one of things that struck Jeff and Ron. They were encouraged by Project Manager Maggie Sodderberg who “said the project team was looking for input from the community in the form of a “Board of Dreamers.”"

More pipe dreams are exactly what the JUMP project doesn’t need.

In the last meeting I attended, the JUMP spokesperson could not state how this non-profit venture was going to stay afloat financially, and very clearly did not understand the development process. Several people asked about access to JUMP, and what the plan was to improve it. The response was the same each time: “I am sure that is getting worked out at the City.” No, Mr. Cuoio, access doesn’t just “get worked out at the City.” If the Simplot Foundation wants some sort of traffic calming devices, crosswalks, lighting, or whatever, it needs to ASK FOR THEM FROM THE APPROPRIATE AGENCY. And that would be ACHD.

I hope to Pete that things are shaping up with the project and that some new light was shed at the meeting at City Hall, but so far, I am afraid. Very afraid.

JUMPDATE! (Update on Simplot’s JUMP project)

As you all know I have been visiting Austin, Texas for the last week so blogging has been sporadic. I have a series of posts planned about that dynamic city, so stay tuned. Before I hit the road, however, I was invited by the IBR’s real estate reporter Dani Grigg to a leads breakfast which featured Simplot Corporation spokesman David Cuoio talking about the JUMP, or “Jack’s Urban Meeting Place” project. I have to admit I don’t share the same level of optimism as the rest of Boise, which has consistently raved about how awesome this is for the city.

I grant you, on its face, a $100 million investment in an area that has been a blight on the entrance to our fine city looks extremely attractive. But after hearing Cuoio - who had almost NO details - speak, I am more afraid than ever. Here’s why.

The one thing that Cuoio was clear on is that JUMP is a non-profit venture. You got that? S-16/Simplot Foundation has no plan to make money from this investment - at least as outlined by Cuoio. I am not a commercial real estate analyst, but I can tell you that the annual operating expenses on a property that size is going to run in the six or seven figures. Are the Simplots prepared to simply write a check every year to cover operating costs? One has to ask because of the propensity of Simplot to “donate” depreciated assets to governmental entities.

Take for example the “gift” of the old Simplot home to the state of Idaho for use as a Governor’s mansion. The home isn’t being used for that purpose, and requires a heady amount of renovation before it is usable as such. Another fine example is Idaho Ice World which the Simplots could not seem to earn any money on, so it was “donated” to the City of Boise. Credit Parks and Recreation Department Head Jim Hall with turning that into a profitable operation for the city. A less capable manager might not have been able to do that which would have left Boise taxpayers with a big white elephant. Finally, several years ago Simplot shuttered an old potato factory in Heyburn and again “donated” it to the county for use as an industrial park. Not that 50 year old buildings and equipment are exactly prime for immediate use.

So this concerns me when the Simplot Corporation now wants to negotiate with the city to perhaps include the library in the project. What happens in five years when the Foundation/Family is sick of writing checks to keep this operation afloat? The Libary! is encircled by a property left in limbo? JUMP becomes a new city park?

To be fair, the Simplot Corporation tentatively plans to move the Food Group and the corporate headquarters to the site which will bring in revenue, but Cuoio was also clear about another thing: This isn’t really the JUMP project so much as it is the JOTC - Jack’s Old Tractor Collection - project.

In a May 23, 2009 Statesman article, Cuoio outlined all kinds of neat things that are planned for JUMP - an amphitheater, studio spaces for artists, and a bunch of indoor and outdoor venues for gatherings. But he again stressed the nature of this facility as a non-profit and said there would be no food service on site for weddings and such, and made no mention of any plans for tour guides, booking agents for the amphitheater, curators, property managers, etc. So what is going on here? Tough to say but what we do know is that Jack has a massive collection of old tractors in storage in Montana, and many of them will be displayed on floors that should house prime office space, according to Cuoio.

Sound a bit funky? I think so.

Finally, vendors interested in providing services to the JUMP/JOTC project can send inquiries to:

JUMP
999 Main St. 10th Floor #1000
Boise, ID 83702

Might as well JUMP?!

If you were around way back in 1984 you remember David Lee Roth crooning for Van Halen that “you might as well Jump!” If not, you’ll still get the gist of this story. The Simplot family has finally decided to develop a massive tract of property in Boise just west of what is now referred to as “Bodo.” Unfamiliar? This is the tract of land bordered by Front and Myrtle, and Ninth and Eleventh. Still confused? See the map at the IBR website.

At any rate. I am grateful for a $100 million investment into downtown Boise, but have some concerns.

1) I am never happy when it is a MAJOR news story when it is discovered that Governor Butch “Buy Idaho” Otter buys his coffee from some out of state place (total economic value maybe a couple hundred bucks a year), but then some Idaho company like Simplot turns around and awards a $100 million construction contract to an out of state firm. Priorities, people.

2) The name. “Jack’s Urban Meeting Place?” Are you serious? This isn’t a serious name for a $100 million project, this is silly. Sure, you’ve got the acronym - JUMP - we all get that. Still, it’s silly. There isn’t a single important building or urban space in this state bearing the name of “Simplot.” So wouldn’t it suffice to name the development Simplot Plaza or something along those lines? Even the Simplot world headquarters is in the “One Capital Center” building.

3) Reality check. I’ll believe that we’re going to see $100 million worth of investment when I see the first tenants move in. Boise has a long history of pipe-dream projects not the least of which is the “Hole” at Eighth and Main. This property too has seen numerous proposals and setbacks over the course of 20 years.

4) Design. It remains to be seen what the site planners are thinking. A ringed fortress in the city’s cultural district? There is zero visibility between the buildings in the complex, that is a negative. The one good thing about that could be sound mitigation from traffic. We’ll see though what design review and the Council have to say.

There are a few comments on the IBR blog already. What do you think?