STEM Crisis in Idaho is in Jobs, not Education

In yesterday’s Idaho Statesman we have more hand wringing by the educational establishment about “why more kids don’t choose to follow educational paths in STEM?” For those outside of the system, STEM is Science, Technology, and Medicine. This obsession with STEM education is predictable, and seems quite rational. The thinking goes that if we build a higher quality workforce beginning at the K-12 ranks, then eventually we’ll be able to attract more companies to Idaho that require those types of workers.

Except that Idaho already has a SURPLUS of STEM trained college graduates who can’t find jobs. This was clearly outlined in a report to the State Board of Education in a report titled, EMSI Comparison of Education and Labor Data 2009. The report was privately produced for the Idaho State Board, so it is not available on-line but I am happy to provide a copy if you want one. The report estimates the number of graduates coming out of Idaho Universities with certain degrees, and attempts to connect them to known job openings where that degree would be relevant. Where STEM is concerned, here is the picture for Idaho:

As shown above, Idaho employers had openings for 91 biologists in 2009; Idaho universities graduated 267 students with degrees in biology - so there are 176 shiny new STEM grads in Biology who can’t find jobs in Idaho. It is the same with several of the other physical sciences, as you can see above. Math, Chemistry, and Physics degrees - at least in Idaho - provide no quick path to employment.

So this means a couple of things: 1) there is no STEM crisis in higher education - quite the opposite. Idaho is graduating more STEM workers than we can even employ, and; 2) those workers will leave the state and go take jobs in Colorado, California, Washington, and Oregon where there are jobs for those kinds of graduates.

Now on to myth number two, that there is a crisis in STEM education in Idaho’s K-12 ranks. It just isn’t true. Here is the data from the National Science Foundation’s Science and Engineering Indicators for 2010:

As indicated above, Idaho ranks among the top states in the nation for eighth grade science proficiency! And when you look at our neighboring states against which we compete for jobs - we’re way better off than Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, and Arizona. Our kids here are doing MUCH better.

What about Math? That story is also pretty good:

In eighth grade math proficiency, Idaho ranks in the second quartile of states, and that is better than ALL of the Intermountain West states except Colorado.

So what’s all this mean? Micron gave the University of Idaho a $1.2 million grant to answer the question of: “why some Idaho students don’t do well or pursue careers in science, technology, engineering and math.” And in a short blog post I’ve already answered that. The question isn’t valid - Idaho’s students in K-12 are doing just fine, thank you, in math and science, and Idaho’s universities are graduating A SURPLUS of STEM trained graduates. The real questions here are:

1) Why aren’t we getting out the word that relative to the other Intermountain West states, Idaho’s achievement in K-12 STEM education is very good, and that we have a surplus of trained STEM workers?

2) Will we continue to see this good of performance from our K-12 students with changing state demographics - an influx of Hispanics that may not have English as a first language, and the graying of the workforce and pending retirements of baby-boom era educators? These educators have served us well - can we sustain that?

3) What kind of investment in education would be required to get Idaho into the top quarter of states on math scores?

4) Can we continue to expect these kinds of results as the share of state funding for higher-ed declines, and funding for K-12 relies upon the shitting sands of the sales tax?

And there are lots of other questions that we could come up with that wold enlighten the educational situation in Idaho, but the one that Micron has asked the U of I to study is based upon several false premises and won’t result in any meaningful conclusions as long as this question is the starting point.

Time to get real about education in Idaho

If there is one precept in social science that can be taken as absolute gospel, it is this: your income potential is largely dependent upon your level of education. That is, more education leads to higher income potential. So a couple of trends that I see happening around the intermountain west cause me some concern. Let’s start with the work world.

In case you did not know it, the largest private employer in the State of Idaho is Wal Mart.

In case you are skimming this post, let me type that again: the largest private employer in the state of Idaho is Wal Mart.

Micron was formerly the top private employer in the state, but no more. Those jobs are now in China where they make stuff that they sell at Wal Mart. But I digress.

So as we have lost high-wage jobs in the private sector, we’ve also frankly just sat idle on education. And, no, not everyone has. In fact, the news today if you dig deep enough was actually quite revealing. Late today, this story hit the wire:

Faculty at ID universities decry policy changes
The Associated Press
Published: 12/15/09

BOISE, Idaho — Faculty representatives at Idaho’s public universities say proposed changes to state Board of Education policies would give presidents of the institutions broad power to make salary cuts during tough times.

Faculty say the revisions would allow university presidents to make permanent salary reductions - regardless of contracts with tenured and non-tenured professors and some staff members.

The proposed revisions, faculty say, would also allow the university presidents facing financial challenges to temporarily reduce wages through furloughs.

Board officials say the revisions aim to give presidents at the University of Idaho, Idaho State University, Boise State University and Lewis-Clark State College more authority and flexibility to make budget cuts amid state shortfalls.

Everyone is in crisis, though, so these budget cuts have to happen, right. Wrong.

If you read the Brookings Report that came out this week, which everyone has by now, you’ll note that the economic recovery (just as I said) is uneven all across the United States. And now, thanks to Brookings and its new Mountain West initiative, we can see exactly how Boise compares to its neighbors in the region. But the important part of the Brookings report for me was noting who wrote it. As it turns out, the Director of this new Brookings initiative is none other than Dr. Robert Lang, one of the nation’s most respected urbanists, and now a new faculty member at University Nevada Las Vegas.

This point is important: as Idaho looks to find ways to pay faculty less, UNLV is luring rock star faculty. Last year they hired noted historian Greg Hise away from USC. Faculty like that don’t come cheap - these guys make real money. And UNLV isn’t the only regional competitor to Boise State that has been hiring rock stars. Last year the University of Utah hired noted urban planning professor Chris Nelson, one of Lang’s colleagues at Virginia Tech.

Idaho is fast becoming a backwater. Our universities are not competitive, our people work at Wal Mart. Dear Legislature, are you listening?

Kuna Council Candidates: Not Best but WORST Practices

Today’s Idaho Statesman has a feature (at the back of the Sports page???) on the council candidates running throughout the Valley, and something very interesting is emerging: the battle to control Kuna.

While the races in Boise are pure Milquetoast (Bisterfeldt and Jordan are sure to win in a walk; Tibbs will give up his seat to cookie-cutter Thompson), Kuna fielded a slate of 10 candidates! It’s a real ding-dong fight to sort out who will control the resources of 13,000 people.

Anyway, the interesting thing that comes out of all this is that two of the candidates are running on the platform to somehow disallow business owners from serving on Kuna’s City Council. In light of an old construct called the U.S. Constitution, I am not sure how they plan to pull this off, but Corrina Stiles and Douglas Hoiland both oppose business owners sitting on the Council, according to the Idaho Statesman.

I attempted to visit both candidate’s websites to clarify their positions. Corrina Stiles, on her site, says this:

“When council members recuse themselves from decision making because of conflicts of interests, a small body of 4 is now even smaller. Is the answer to close city council membership to business owners, probably not. But we should indeed select council members who will not see a business financial gain or protection from decision making. ”

This raises the question of whether she changed her position when she filled out the Statesman’s questionnaire, or whether the Statesman got the story wrong. Maybe she’ll respond here and let us know.

As for Doug Hoiland, the 56 year old SOFTWARE DEVELOPER has no website so I can’t confirm or refute his position on business owners serving on the Council.

For the sake of argument and this column, let’s just assume that the both of these candidates have decided that because conflict of interests are so rife that it’s just not possible for people that own a business to serve on a city council. Might there be other opinions out there? Yes.

I just finished reading a book published by Harvard University Press, authored by University of Chicago Graduate School of Business Professor Sean Safford, entitled Why the Garden Club Couldn’t Save Youngstown. Hat tip to Idaho Department of Commerce Deputy Director Lane Packwood for the recommend; it’s a great read.

In the book, Safford writes a case study of two rust-belt towns, Youngstown, OH and Allentown, PA, and how they grappled with the changing economic conditions that hammered their industrial based economies beginning in the 1970s. Short story is this: while Youngstown got taken over by the mob and essentially died, Allentown attracted venture capital, grew its population, and is now thriving. Two cities starting with very similar resources end up in very different places. What accounts for the difference? Safford explains it as a matter of social capital.

Youngstown’s business and civic elite were one in the same. By the 1970s, when business began to collapse the third and fourth generation founding families of Youngstown’s economic engine retreated from public life, and civic life collapsed along with the economy. Allentown was a different story.

Allentown’s civic boards, rather than being interlocking directorates as in Youngstown, were opportunities to connect people that would not otherwise be connected. Managers from local economic powerhouses who had a vested interest in the place they lived (how novel) had replaced dilettante family members from Allentown’s big companies. Thus, civic boards remained viable and were ready to address the economic malaise that struck the Rust-belt with blunt force.

At the end of the short but powerful book, Safford arrives at one important conclusion for policy makers, economic developers, and their ilk:

“Incentives might be better directed to weaving company leaders into the local civil society. And in doing so, it makes sense to analyze the structure of that civil society and guide the leaders of key constituencies - economic, religious, social, and political - toward forms of participation that link up otherwise disconnected factions. One way to do this is to pay greater attention to the various advisory boards that mayors, county executives, and legislators control and use those as opportunities to create connections among communities that need to be connected.”

Alright, look. I am not an educational or social elitist by any means. I’m a guy that earned an M.A. from a regular old state school in Idaho, but here’s what we have here. A University of Chicago (one of the world’s top universities) professor argues that cities enduring economic change (like Boise) need to focus on connecting business leaders with civic organizations. Meanwhile, candidates in Kuna, where a whole 14.7% of the population has a college degree (about 10% below the Idaho average) are hauling off and saying just the opposite. I don’t know where Kuna folks get these ideas (see the picture above) but this guy (moi) is confident that they might not have this one right. Just sayin’.

JUMPDATE: Now hiring, project coordinator

The JUMP folks are hiring a project coordinator (link to PDF). DM me (@LGM1) or e-mail me for where to send your package.

Utah lands new National Security Agency spy center

Fueled by $180 million in federal stimulus money, the National Security Agency will build a one-million square foot data center outside of Salt Lake City. According to the Salt Lake Tribune:

Hoping to protect its top-secret operations by decentralizing its massive computer hubs, the National Security Agency will build a 1-million-square-foot data center at Utah’s Camp Williams.

The years-in-the-making project, which may cost billions over time, got a $181 million start last week when President Obama signed a war spending bill in which Congress agreed to pay for primary construction, power access and security infrastructure. The enormous building, which will have a footprint about three times the size of the Utah State Capitol building, will be constructed on a 200-acre site near the Utah National Guard facility’s runway.

Congressional records show that initial construction — which may begin this year — will include tens of millions in electrical work and utility construction, a $9.3 million vehicle inspection facility, and $6.8 million in perimeter security fencing. The budget also allots $6.5 million for the relocation of an existing access road, communications building and training area.

Officials familiar with the project say it may bring as many as 1,200 high-tech jobs to Camp Williams, which borders Salt Lake, Utah and Tooele counties.

It will also require at least 65 megawatts of power — about the same amount used by every home in Salt Lake City combined. A separate power substation will have to be built at Camp Williams to sustain that demand, said Col. Scott Olson, the Utah National Guard’s legislative liaison.

There are few places in the U.S. that could house a data center like this, and Utah has spent years laying the groundwork to make sure that it could accommodate this kind of facility (or a Google data center, etc.). Utah did not look much different from the rest of the intermountain west region in 1997, but made a concerted effort to beef up its Internet Backbone connections. By 1999, the Wasatch Front area had one of the nation’s fastest growing Internet networks. So what does that network look like after another 10 years?

Today, the Salt Lake City area has more internet backbone capacity relative to demand, than anywhere in the United States. And regional competition if you are sitting in Boise, ID, is pretty tough:

Last October, Idaho, led by INL, and the state’s universities and hospitals connected to the IRON GigaPop network (Idaho Regional Optical Network) which is a great leap forward for our research institutions. The network allows institutions to connect at speeds allowing an entire CD to be downloaded in seconds, or an entire library in minutes. However, Idaho still has nowhere near the backbone capacity to attract a Google or NSA like datacenter. Congrats to our neighbors to the south for making an investment in infrastructure that is paying off by attracting billions of dollars in spending and lots, and lots, of high paying technical jobs.

Idaho are you listening?

Next Cities report: Boise #8 for young, talented workers

I am sure the Boise Young Professionals hopes this is true, but again, I find myself with questions after reading the latest national report. This one, from Next Cities™ lists the City of Boise as the eighth hottest midsize city for young, talented workers. Here’s the ranking of midsize cities:

Next Cities list of the 8 hottest midsize cities for young, talented workers

I like this organization - Next Cities. But again, its methodology is proprietary so we have no way to review the data it used. We can tell right away though that there are some obvious questions with the way it weights things. For example, San Francisco ranks #1 on the megacities list. Next Generation Consulting says that cost of living is the highest weighted index in its algorithm, yet San Francisco has one of the highest costs of living in the U.S., if not the world. So I am not sure how they achieve this rating.

Organizing this by population also seems odd. Boise compares with Atlanta, Orlando, and St. Paul. Some other U.S. Census delineation might be more helpful.

The matrix used by Next Cities includes cost of living; earning; vitality; after hours; learning; around town; and social capital. Here’s what I’d say about Boise.

Cost of living Obviously we’d score high here. Cost of living, even close to town is really cheap, as are utilities. Food cost is low, gas is a little high usually. Overall - pretty good comparatively.

Earning Terrible. Wages here are low, low, low. Everyone knows it. Another complicating issue with the wage issue is that if you come here and don’t like your high paying white collar professional services job, or engineering position, a lateral move to a like firm is a longshot since the economic base here is neither wide nor deep.

Vitality For Next Cities, this means clean air and water, overall health of the resident, and green space. I’d say we do pretty well here except that we are barely within federal guidelines for air quality standards so again, that must not be weighted very highly in the vitality index.

After Hours This includes not only clubs and what not, but other recreational activities. We obviously score high on the natural side of things, but even though we have a nice, clean, safe downtown that is easy to get around anyone coming from a bigger city would wish we had a little more going on. Still, I’d say we’re not too bad overall.

Learning This is another composite index based on educational opportunities, free WiFi and public library use. Here we are really, really low. The Boise Valley is only now opening its first community college, and satellite libraries. The downtown library is small and overused for its size, but in citizen surveys, building new libraries has never been a high priority.

Around town Compared to larger cities, our commute times are pretty good as long as you don’t live west of Boise. Our airport serves a fairly narrow regional market, and public transportation here is not well funded.

Social Capital Here is where things get really murky. From the Next Cities website: “This index accounts for how open, safe, and accessible your city is to all people. It includes measures of diversity, crime rates, voter participation rates, and the percentage of women and minority-owned businesses.” This sounds like some kind of Richard Florida like amalgam, and I am not so certain that this is useful. It is the lowest weighted variable.

I have little doubt that this report is methodologically rigorous (coming from Madison, whose university is famous for quantitative rigor), and that the results are valid - I just don’t think they are completely reliable as presented. It is an interesting report, however, and there are things we can learn from it, and things we can’t.

Things we CAN’T learn:

• Where we stack up against ALL cities in the U.S. and the world. As the report itself notes, this demographic appears to pick where they want to live, then picks a job. The research does not indicate that this demographic chooses a place to live based on city size, so the organization of the report by city size doesn’t yield any usable conclusions.
• The specific strengths and weaknesses of each city on each index.
• Where each city is in relation to its regional competitors. For instance, where is the City of Boise in relation to the cities to which it is losing population (Provo, Salt Lake, Portland, Seattle), and the cities from which it is gaining population (Los Angeles, Riverside, Phoenix, Sacramento), and is this research relevant to those population flows.

Things we CAN learn:

• According to this research, workers in this demographic make employment choices based upon these indices, in order. So, if Boise wants to attract this kind of talent focusing on cost if living is the most important factor, creating higher paying jobs is the second most important thing. Since we already have a low cost of living here, the primary task of economic developers should be creating higher wage jobs. This isn’t new news. The debate is what is the best strategy for creating higher paying jobs.
• Where Boise ranks against a set of cities that in at least one measure (population) are alike. This is helpful in the sense that it gives some insight into how well other cities have done at creating conditions favorable to attracting workers of this demographic, and may provide models for us to emulate.

Next Generation Consulting is a great group that has excellent insight into how cities develop human capital. We could perhaps learn a lot more with a more detailed report on our own region so we could peel back the layers of the onion and see what our real strengths and weaknesses are. This report though doesn’t give economic developers any real actionable information.

Best locations to be out of a job: probably not Boise

Lane Wallace who blogs writes for The Atlantic wrote an interesting piece about the best places to be unemployed. I’ve long held that culture is a huge determining factor in the level of entrepreneurial activity. Moving from Redmond, WA to Boise, ID, I noticed a pronounced difference in the start-up culture here. In the Seattle area, everyone I knew wanted to get a job at Microsoft or Amazon, make some money, get some skills, meet some people, and then go start their own company. In Boise, everyone wants to get on at Micron or HP, get some health benefits and start a family. Why is that? It’s culture. Lane Wallace explains:

When I first quit my corporate job and set out to be a self-employed writer, I was living in a predominantly blue-collar community in Minnesota. The cost of living was wonderfully low. But getting hit with “when are you going to get a job?” from everyone I met was exhausting. Tell someone in New York or LA that you’re a writer, or tell someone in Silicon Valley that you’re starting your own company, and the response is far more likely to be, “Wow! That’s great! Tell me all about it!” And, quite possibly, the conversation will conclude with, “you know who you might want to talk to …” Being laid off in New York or LA or Silicon Valley just means you’ve joined a well-populated club with a long and cherished tradition. Even if you don’t want to stay in that club forever, you don’t have to be embarrassed to be a part of it. That counts for a lot.

Boise too is a tough town to be out of job in. Once out of a job at HP or Micron, there aren’t a whole lot of other options. My anecdotal evidence from working at the University says that we see a lot of folks changing careers after a layoff (going from sales to social work . . . ). Or, people uproot and move their families to Salt Lake, Portland, Seattle, or Phoenix. And it seems from lingering around the start-up community for a few years now that you see a lot of consultants and people remaining self-employed, but not developing “companies” that could grow to 50, 100, or 1,000 employees.

Lane Wallace’s piece was based upon a New York Times article. I commend them both.